The 2024 NBA Play-In Tournament officially gets underway this evening when the Los Angeles Lakers take on the New Orleans Pelicans. Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana, will play host with tipoff slated for 6:30 p.m. CT. TNT will have the national broadcast.
The contest is a rematch of Sunday's showdown between these two teams during the final game of the regular season. The Lakers got the better of the Pelicans that afternoon, 124-108, as the hosts dropped their fifth consecutive home game. Now, it's essentially a must-win scenario for both teams as a victory would secure a playoff series versus the 2-seed, the Denver Nuggets.
New Orleans (49-33) has been one of the most improved teams in the league this year. Willie Green's young squad overcame injuries to star players en route to posting nearly 50 wins. Brandon Ingram returned to the floor on Sunday, which means the Pelicans are fully healthy once again, but the struggles at home are worrisome for their supporters.
Los Angeles (47-35) seemingly turned a corner toward the end of the regular season and figured out how to play as a team. The Lakers rattled off 11 wins in their last 15 games, which was enough to put them in a decent spot in the NBA Play-In Tournament. Now, back-to-back wins in New Orleans will see LeBron James and Co. book their tickets to the dance.
Oddsmakers view this game as a virtual toss-up, so it's no surprise to see the Pelicans favored by a lone point with an over/under of 224.5.
Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:
Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans
Time/TV:Â 6:30 p.m. CT (TNT)
Spread (from FanDuel):Â Pelicans -1
Total:Ìý224.5
Moneyline:Â Pelicans -112, Lakers -104
Analysis: The line for this contest has flip-flopped since Sunday night. New Orleans opened up as the favorite — despite an embarrassing home loss on Sunday — before public bettors moved the line to Los Angeles -1. Now, money has seen the odds shift back in the Pelicans' favor.
All of this is to say nobody has any clue who will win this contest.
The history between these two teams suggests that no matter the winner, the contest won't be close. The Lakers are 3-1 against New Orleans this year with an average margin of victory in all four contests of nearly 25 points. Sunday's clash was the closest meeting between these two all season with previous games being decided by 17, 20 and 44 points respectively.
Los Angeles seems to be a bit of a bogie team for the Pelicans. New Orleans has a 2-6 record against the Lakers over the last two years, only once coming within single digits during a loss. Only two of those meetings have been decided by less than 15 points overall.
Los Angeles simply matches up well against the Pelicans. Its stars, Anthony Davis and James, have a size advantage over their counterparts. This causes matchup issues as Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson try to effectively work out how to play together on the floor when they can't dominate in the paint. As , Williamson has met his athletic match in James, despite the age difference.
For these reasons and the fact New Orleans has been incredibly poor at home as of late, I like the Lakers to go back-to-back at the Smoothie King Center.
If you're not looking to bet a winner in a contest with a 1-point spread, nobody would blame you, and there are other ways to play it. Only two meetings between these two teams over the previous two seasons have failed to go under the total set for this evening's clash. Therefore, trends say to bet the over.
Prediction:Â Lakers 117, Pelicans 110 (Over 224.5)
Best bet:Â Lakers moneyline (-104 via FanDuel Sportsbook)