Which party do Americans trust most to handle the nation’s top issues?
Let’s start with the economy. Polling shows Republicans in Congress beat Democrats on this critical issue––a big turnaround from a year ago when voters favored Democrats in Congress on economic matters.
According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, more voters trust Republicans to handle economic issues than trust Democrats, and by a wide 14-point margin, 48% to 34%. Independents, who determine winners in many elections, favor Republicans on the issue by 20 points.
Looking at inflation, specifically, the same poll finds that Republicans win it by an even wider 18-point margin, 48% to 30%. Only 19% of independents, 22% of the self-employed, 25% of rural voters and 27% of both Whites and Hispanics favor Democrats on this deeply personal kitchen-table issue.
Another issue that helps Republicans is national security, an especially important policy arena now that war is raging in Ukraine. The GOP beats Democrats by 16 points, 49% to 33%. That’s a huge shift from 12 months ago, when Democrats led national security by three points.
A year ago, Democrats topped Republicans on immigration by seven points. Presently, Republicans win it by 11. Voter perception that the Biden Administration is neglecting border security is badly hurting his party. Whites favor Republicans on the issue by 21 points and Hispanics favor Democrats by only three points.
The GOP also leads on gun policy by nine points, despite relentless efforts by Democrats and affiliated groups to paint Republicans as insensitive to gun violence.
On which issues are Democrats most trusted?
Climate change and the environment are top issues for Democrats. They beat Republicans 47% to 28% on the former and 49% to 31% on the latter. Independents favor Democrats on climate issues by 27 points––making it a potential time bomb for the GOP should climate concerns rise in public consciousness in years ahead.
Democrats still win the crucial health care issue, but by a smaller margin (seven points) than they had a year ago when they led by 22 points.
Throughout the pandemic, voters have trusted Democrats more than Republicans on their handling of the coronavirus – and they continue to do so by seven points, 42% to 35%. However, a year ago, Democrats were winning the issue by a whopping 24 points, 51% to 27%.
Protecting Medicare and Social Security has long been Democratic territory. But the party’s advantage is now a modest five points on these safety-net issues. Interestingly, Democrats do better among younger than older voters on protecting programs that primarily target support for seniors.
Education has been a Democratic issue, too, and still is, but currently by only three points. A year ago, Democrats won it by 21 points. Recent controversies involving curriculum, vaccinations and masking have scrambled school concerns. Last year’s Republican victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial election showed how grassroots conservatives were able to redraw battle lines, at least for now.
Voting rights is a Democratic issue by a 44% to 40% margin, despite racial and generational divides: Whites favor Republicans on this issue 46% to 39% and Blacks favor Democrats 71% to 12%. GenZers and Millennials prefer Democrats by 15-16 points on voting rights, but GenXers and Baby Boomers favor Republicans by two points.
The Politico/Morning Consult poll that produced the above numbers didn’t test some important issues, such as crime and abortion. But other polling has looked at them from a different angle.
The latest Economist/YouGov poll, for example, finds that only 36% of voters approve of President Joe Biden’s handling of crime, while 51% disapprove. The survey also finds that 35% of voters approve of Biden’s handling of the abortion issue, while 46% disapprove. Neither is helpful to Democratic candidates this year.
Based on public perceptions, Democrats have lost key issues to the Republicans over the past year, especially the economy, national security and immigration, and they’ve also lost ground on their mainstays such as health care, education, Medicare and Social Security.
Democrats believe they have better candidates in November’s elections and hope that advantage saves them from disaster. But even good candidates, from either side, can have a tough time explaining party positions that are unpopular with voters.
Ron Faucheux is a nonpartisan political analyst based in New Orleans. He publishes , a free nationwide newsletter on polls and public opinion. Contact him at rfaucheux@aol.com.
