Attention focuses on Congress in midterm elections. But don’t forget the 36 gubernatorial races across the nation this November. They will be important — and may reshape the nation’s agenda on a host of big issues, especially abortion, crime and education. They may also make or break presidential ambitions.
Of America’s 50 governors, 27 are now Republicans and 23 are Democrats. Of those, 20 Republican seats and 16 Democratic seats are up for election this year. Louisiana is one of three states that elects its governor next year.
Democrats are fighting to hold governorships at risk in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Kansas and Maine. Republicans are battling to keep Arizona and Georgia and are likely to lose Massachusetts and Maryland. A few states with favored incumbents — Democrats in New York and Minnesota; Republicans in Florida, Texas and Ohio — will host interesting, though maybe not so close, contests.
National political winds, if they blow hard enough, could produce surprises.
Georgia hasn’t elected a Democratic governor in 24 years. But Republican Gov. Brian Kemp is now fighting a GOP primary battle against Donald Trump’s hand-picked candidate, former Sen. David Perdue. A Kemp win in the May 24 primary would be a blow to the former president’s role as party kingmaker. The Democratic candidate is Stacey Abrams, a party celebrity and adept national fundraiser. Polls show Kemp leading Abrams, but could Trump’s attacks on Kemp help Abrams?
In Pennsylvania, Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat, is term-limited. Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro is his party’s candidate. The Republican field is fractured. State Sen. Doug Mastriano leads most polls with former U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta and former U.S. attorney William McSwain trailing. McSwain is opposed by Trump for being a “coward” in not challenging the 2020 presidential election. The primary is May 17.
Two Democratic bastions, Massachusetts and Maryland, are in the same boat: They have popular two-term Republican governors not running again and Democrats are favored to win both seats. Maryland’s Larry Hogan and Massachusetts’ Charlie Baker are frequent Trump critics with a mixture of centrist, conservative and liberal positions — probably the only kind of Republicans that can win deep-blue states.
As he leaves the governor’s office, Hogan is looking at a presidential bid. While Baker says he wants out, a new poll shows him winning another term as an independent against a progressive Democrat and a Trump-endorsed Republican.
Michigan’s Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, who was on Joe Biden’s shortlist for vice president, is seeking a second term. Polling shows her in what could be a competitive contest against Republican James Craig, a former Detroit police chief. If Whitmer wins, she could have a bright future in national Democratic politics.
Wisconsin’s Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who won a narrow victory four years ago over then-Gov. Scott Walker, a Republican, is seeking another term. Former Republican Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, who has Walker’s support, is leading the GOP field.
In Nevada, Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak may be vulnerable. In the Republican primary, Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo owns the crime issue and leads the polls. He’s followed by Dean Heller, a former U.S. senator, and Joey Gilbert, a lawyer and former boxer.
New York’s Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul is in a slump, but she’s still favored. The recent campaign finance scandal that brought down her appointed lieutenant governor has not helped her standing. If former Gov. Andrew Cuomo gets into the race as an independent and splits the Democratic vote, he may give Republicans a fighting chance.
Democrats keep telling themselves they can win statewide in Texas — but it hasn’t happened in 28 years. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott faces former Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who ran a close Senate race in 2018. Though Abbott has had glitches on the job, polls show him beating challenger O’Rourke, who hurt himself with an ill-fated run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.
Florida could play a big role in 2024 presidential politics. But before the state’s Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis runs for the White House, he must first get reelected. His likely Democratic opponent is former Gov. Charlie Crist.
Though Democrats would love to beat DeSantis, toppling the hard-hitting, well-financed incumbent is proving increasingly difficult. He has consolidated power and is now favored to win a second term with votes to spare. If he does, the question becomes: Will two Florida residents, DeSantis and Trump, oppose each other for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination?
There you have it. Plenty of fascinating state elections to watch between now and November.
Ron Faucheux is a nonpartisan political analyst based in New Orleans. He publishes , a free nationwide newsletter on polls and public opinion, and is the author of Running for Office, a tell-all book for political candidates.
