The abortion fight is surely supercharged 鈥 matters of morality, freedom and faith usually are 鈥 but there is more to it than a battle between polar opposites. A middle ground of voters, often overlooked, don鈥檛 agree with absolutist views on either side.
The latest poll from Economist/YouGov finds that 28% of voters believe abortion should never be banned, 18% say it should always be banned and 52% favor both allowing abortion and imposing restrictions at various times during a pregnancy.
Support for the absolutist pro-abortion rights position exceeds the absolutist anti-abortion position by a 28% to 18% margin. However, anti-abortion advocates can take comfort that 59% of Americans favor a range of restrictions from conception through the first 15 weeks of pregnancies.
While these poll numbers provide a glimpse into the convolutions of public opinion on this issue, they also tell us that most Americans reject an absolutist position and favor a middle ground. For them, abortion policy is about exceptions and limitations.
As we move toward the midterm elections, polls show rising pro-abortion rights sentiment and majority opposition to overturning Roe v. Wade. The latest Marist Poll, for example, indicates that 64% of voters oppose scuttling the decision. This is why Democrats are hopeful they can use the issue to turn out their base in November. That鈥檚 possible, particularly in states where pro-abortion rights views are strongest.
But while most Americans want to keep Roe, polls have also shown that slightly more Americans favor than oppose the Mississippi abortion law, the centerpiece of the current Supreme Court fight that would outlaw abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy. This is based on two surveys conducted last fall by Marquette University Law School and YouGov.
Using the abortion issue to win general elections, especially in swing states, has proven difficult for either side. That鈥檚 due to policy details as well as the varying intensity of opinions in each state and district. Another reason: The latest NBC 香港六和开奖历史记录 poll tells us that only one in ten voters say abortion is their most important issue. Others matters, such as inflation and the economy, are hitting home harder.
Democrats are now the abortion rights party and Republicans the anti-abortion party. But a large number of voters in each camp do not identify with commonly used labels.
Fifty-seven percent of Democrats, based on the Economist/YouGov poll, identify with the 鈥減ro-choice鈥 label 鈥 but 9% say they鈥檙e 鈥減ro-life鈥 and 23% say they鈥檙e 鈥渂oth pro-life and pro-choice.鈥 Fifty-one percent of Republicans identify as 鈥減ro-life鈥 鈥 but 16% say they鈥檙e 鈥減ro-choice鈥 and 24% say they鈥檙e 鈥渂oth pro-choice and pro-life.鈥
Note that nearly a quarter of the electorate 鈥 equivalent to about 48 million voters 鈥 have resolved conflicted feelings by viewing themselves as 鈥渂oth pro-life and pro-choice.鈥
Looking at policy details beyond the labels in the same poll, we find that 45% of Democrats say abortion should never be banned. But 18% think it should be banned after six months of pregnancy, 12% after 15 weeks, 10% after three months and 15% after six weeks. Six percent think it should always be banned.
Of Republicans, 31% say abortion should always be banned. But 28% say a ban should take effect after six weeks, 11% after three months, 12% after 15 weeks and 8% after six months. Nine percent never want it banned.
Despite anti-abortion predispositions, most Republicans believe abortion should be allowed in cases of rape (55%) or incest (58%), and 69% favor allowing it when the mother鈥檚 life is seriously endangered. Though 82% of Democrats say the abortion decision should be left up to the woman and her doctor, 30% of Democrats also believe 鈥渁bortion is the same as murdering a child.鈥
As you can see, abortion is a complex issue with many sides. Keep in mind, too, that these national polls do not reflect views within individual states, which can vary greatly. That鈥檚 important given the state-by-state battles ahead should Roe be overturned.
Whatever views political candidates express, they need to understand the policy distinctions, nuances of public opinion and human consequences. That鈥檚 why personal conscience is the best guide 鈥 no matter what the polls show.
Ron Faucheux is a nonpartisan political analyst based in New Orleans. He publishes , a free nationwide newsletter on polls and public opinion.
